Following the "going onion," the new round of vegetable prices has risen. According to the information released by the Ministry of Commerce, since September last year, the national wholesale price of eggplant has doubled in half a year, while the Ministry of Commerce has hosted hundreds of The daily inspection system of the agricultural and sideline products wholesale market shows that the average price of Chinese cabbage has risen more than 50% in the most recent month.
The Daily Economic News reporter conducted a survey on the vegetable market in Chengdu, Sichuan province, and found that the “butterfly effect†of two rounds of rising oil prices has begun to appear. When the local green onions with a purchase price of 1.2 yuan/kg arrived on the market after a series of links, The retail price has risen to 5 yuan/kg. Several wholesalers told reporters that the rise in oil prices brought them a lot of pressure.
The price trend is closely related to the changes in the price of vegetables. As vegetable prices have risen, several research institutions have forecasted that the March CPI should not continue the trend of a sharp drop in February but will rise slightly.
Wholesalers: Increased oil price pressure The reporter learned from the website of the Ministry of Commerce that after the Spring Festival this year, some vegetable prices rose sharply. Among them, the average price of Chinese cabbage has risen from 1.07 yuan on February 28 to 1.66 yuan on March 28. From a longer period of time, some vegetable prices rose rapidly. Among them, the national wholesale price of eggplant is currently around 6 yuan/kg, and less than 3 yuan/kg half a year ago. The wholesale price of beans ranges from 4.5 yuan/kg. Rose to 7.4 yuan / kg, celery rose from 2.8 yuan / kg rose to 4.1 yuan / kg.
In Chengdu’s Guojiaqiao vegetable market, Guo Shao’s stall’s local onions sell 5 yuan/jin, and Shandong shallots sell 4.5 yuan/jin. Earlier, the reporter of “Daily Economic News†learned when visiting the planting base of green onions in Ji County, Chengdu City, that the planting base for onions was purchased at 1.2 yuan/kg. So, what is the difference between the planting base and the retailer at 3.8 yuan/kg?
With questions, the reporter of the "Daily Economic News" conducted an interview at the Baijia Agricultural Products (10.91, -0.69, -5.95%) Wholesale Center. This market is one of the large vegetable wholesale markets in Chengdu. The reporter found that the Baijia Agricultural Products Wholesale Center, which had previously stopped trucks, is now empty. "I don't think that I have lost more than 30,000 yuan since the Spring Festival." Liu, the owner of wholesale lettuce, said with resignation.
Liu boss has done a vegetable wholesale business for many years at Baijia, and he runs a wholesale stall of 40 to 50 square meters. He told reporters that his vegetables were purchased from the Leshan planting base in Sichuan and used his own car to transport to Chengdu for wholesale. This batch of lettuce was bought by Leshan at a price of five cents a pound, and now the wholesale price at the White House is six cents.
Low temperatures affect the yield of vegetables, and prices will increase as prices decrease. However, for Liu Boss, the rise in oil prices brought more pressure. "This year's oil prices have risen twice. Now, when I run from Leshan to Chengdu, I need about 500 yuan for oil money, which is 50 yuan more than before. The booth fee here is 500 yuan per day, plus the wages of two workers. You don't think I can sell 10,000 to 30,000 catties a day, but it's really hard to do business." Liu boss picked up the rotten leaves on the floor and told reporters: "I have to sell a ton of vegetables and have to eclipse it. Hundreds of jins.Now even if the price of oil goes up, my wholesale price still dares not to rise. The competition here is fierce. It is not just my family selling lettuce.
Another owner of the wholesale peppers Zhang told reporters that their green peppers were acquired directly from the Baoshan base in Yunnan. The rise in oil prices puts them under great pressure.
Experts: Oil prices rose 4% and planting costs increased 3%
Su Jingsong, distribution manager of Sichuan International Agricultural Trading Center, told the Daily Economic News reporter that the wholesale of vegetables needs to go through four processes: a farmer production base, a wholesale market, a secondary wholesale market, and finally a vegetable retailer. The price of vegetables in each process has a 10% to 40% increase. The cost of each level of basic distribution includes transportation, labor, storage, and wear of goods, plus profits.
The cost of storage and items wear is basically fixed. Expert analysis believes that, in addition to seasonal factors, the two successive increases in refined oil prices have contributed to the price of vegetables. Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst at Eastern Iger, said in an interview with the reporter of the “Daily Economic News†that according to estimates, for each 4% increase in oil prices, the cost of planting agricultural products such as grain and vegetables would increase by 3%. The butterfly effect of rising oil prices will also have a direct impact on vegetable prices in circulation.
Or slightly pulled up March CPI
The price trend is closely related to the changes in the price of vegetables. Ping An Securities (Weibo) believes that although food prices have risen for two consecutive weeks, but the overall magnitude is not. Tang Jianwei said that the non-food price increase in March is expected to continue its slight downward trend, about 1.6%. Therefore, CPI will also rebound slightly to 3.3% to 3.7%.
Tang Jianwei, a macro analyst at the Bank of Communications (4.69, -0.06, -1.26%) told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that March's CPI growth is expected to be between 3.3% and 3.7%, taking the median, and the CPI is expected to increase in March from the same period last year. About 3.5%, there will be a slight rebound from February.
As for the reasons for the rebound, many researchers including Tang Jianwei believe that the rebound in vegetable prices in early March and the increase in oil prices are the main reasons. However, the inflation in the first quarter and even the second quarter is not worth worrying and should not exceed 4%. .
Throughout 2011, China’s quarterly CPI did not return to less than 4%. At present, most institutions and scholars believe that the CPI in the first quarter of this year and even the first half of the year will operate at a low level and will not exceed 4%.
The National Development and Reform Commission raised gasoline and diesel prices by 6.1% on March 20. Due to the larger increase, the domestic refined oil price hit a record high, and it was also regarded as one of the main drivers of the CPI increase.
Tang Jianwei said that the impact of oil prices on the CPI in April was only about 0.05 percentage point. Even considering the cost-improving role of refined oil prices in addition to vehicle fuels, the degree of impact on CPI remains low.
Bai Pengming, a macro analyst at China Investment Advisors, told the Daily Economic News that the first quarter CPI was initially estimated at less than 4%. The second quarter's trend will continue the trend of prices in March, and the preliminary estimate will show a slight increase and then fall back. Should focus on pork, refined oil, vegetables and other prices.
“Since prices rebounded in March, we expect monetary policy operations will remain stable. We maintain that the statutory deposit reserve ratio for 2012 will still be judged to be 1-3 times and 0.5 percentage points each time.†Tang Jianwei said.
The Daily Economic News reporter conducted a survey on the vegetable market in Chengdu, Sichuan province, and found that the “butterfly effect†of two rounds of rising oil prices has begun to appear. When the local green onions with a purchase price of 1.2 yuan/kg arrived on the market after a series of links, The retail price has risen to 5 yuan/kg. Several wholesalers told reporters that the rise in oil prices brought them a lot of pressure.
The price trend is closely related to the changes in the price of vegetables. As vegetable prices have risen, several research institutions have forecasted that the March CPI should not continue the trend of a sharp drop in February but will rise slightly.
Wholesalers: Increased oil price pressure The reporter learned from the website of the Ministry of Commerce that after the Spring Festival this year, some vegetable prices rose sharply. Among them, the average price of Chinese cabbage has risen from 1.07 yuan on February 28 to 1.66 yuan on March 28. From a longer period of time, some vegetable prices rose rapidly. Among them, the national wholesale price of eggplant is currently around 6 yuan/kg, and less than 3 yuan/kg half a year ago. The wholesale price of beans ranges from 4.5 yuan/kg. Rose to 7.4 yuan / kg, celery rose from 2.8 yuan / kg rose to 4.1 yuan / kg.
In Chengdu’s Guojiaqiao vegetable market, Guo Shao’s stall’s local onions sell 5 yuan/jin, and Shandong shallots sell 4.5 yuan/jin. Earlier, the reporter of “Daily Economic News†learned when visiting the planting base of green onions in Ji County, Chengdu City, that the planting base for onions was purchased at 1.2 yuan/kg. So, what is the difference between the planting base and the retailer at 3.8 yuan/kg?
With questions, the reporter of the "Daily Economic News" conducted an interview at the Baijia Agricultural Products (10.91, -0.69, -5.95%) Wholesale Center. This market is one of the large vegetable wholesale markets in Chengdu. The reporter found that the Baijia Agricultural Products Wholesale Center, which had previously stopped trucks, is now empty. "I don't think that I have lost more than 30,000 yuan since the Spring Festival." Liu, the owner of wholesale lettuce, said with resignation.
Liu boss has done a vegetable wholesale business for many years at Baijia, and he runs a wholesale stall of 40 to 50 square meters. He told reporters that his vegetables were purchased from the Leshan planting base in Sichuan and used his own car to transport to Chengdu for wholesale. This batch of lettuce was bought by Leshan at a price of five cents a pound, and now the wholesale price at the White House is six cents.
Low temperatures affect the yield of vegetables, and prices will increase as prices decrease. However, for Liu Boss, the rise in oil prices brought more pressure. "This year's oil prices have risen twice. Now, when I run from Leshan to Chengdu, I need about 500 yuan for oil money, which is 50 yuan more than before. The booth fee here is 500 yuan per day, plus the wages of two workers. You don't think I can sell 10,000 to 30,000 catties a day, but it's really hard to do business." Liu boss picked up the rotten leaves on the floor and told reporters: "I have to sell a ton of vegetables and have to eclipse it. Hundreds of jins.Now even if the price of oil goes up, my wholesale price still dares not to rise. The competition here is fierce. It is not just my family selling lettuce.
Another owner of the wholesale peppers Zhang told reporters that their green peppers were acquired directly from the Baoshan base in Yunnan. The rise in oil prices puts them under great pressure.
Experts: Oil prices rose 4% and planting costs increased 3%
Su Jingsong, distribution manager of Sichuan International Agricultural Trading Center, told the Daily Economic News reporter that the wholesale of vegetables needs to go through four processes: a farmer production base, a wholesale market, a secondary wholesale market, and finally a vegetable retailer. The price of vegetables in each process has a 10% to 40% increase. The cost of each level of basic distribution includes transportation, labor, storage, and wear of goods, plus profits.
The cost of storage and items wear is basically fixed. Expert analysis believes that, in addition to seasonal factors, the two successive increases in refined oil prices have contributed to the price of vegetables. Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst at Eastern Iger, said in an interview with the reporter of the “Daily Economic News†that according to estimates, for each 4% increase in oil prices, the cost of planting agricultural products such as grain and vegetables would increase by 3%. The butterfly effect of rising oil prices will also have a direct impact on vegetable prices in circulation.
Or slightly pulled up March CPI
The price trend is closely related to the changes in the price of vegetables. Ping An Securities (Weibo) believes that although food prices have risen for two consecutive weeks, but the overall magnitude is not. Tang Jianwei said that the non-food price increase in March is expected to continue its slight downward trend, about 1.6%. Therefore, CPI will also rebound slightly to 3.3% to 3.7%.
Tang Jianwei, a macro analyst at the Bank of Communications (4.69, -0.06, -1.26%) told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that March's CPI growth is expected to be between 3.3% and 3.7%, taking the median, and the CPI is expected to increase in March from the same period last year. About 3.5%, there will be a slight rebound from February.
As for the reasons for the rebound, many researchers including Tang Jianwei believe that the rebound in vegetable prices in early March and the increase in oil prices are the main reasons. However, the inflation in the first quarter and even the second quarter is not worth worrying and should not exceed 4%. .
Throughout 2011, China’s quarterly CPI did not return to less than 4%. At present, most institutions and scholars believe that the CPI in the first quarter of this year and even the first half of the year will operate at a low level and will not exceed 4%.
The National Development and Reform Commission raised gasoline and diesel prices by 6.1% on March 20. Due to the larger increase, the domestic refined oil price hit a record high, and it was also regarded as one of the main drivers of the CPI increase.
Tang Jianwei said that the impact of oil prices on the CPI in April was only about 0.05 percentage point. Even considering the cost-improving role of refined oil prices in addition to vehicle fuels, the degree of impact on CPI remains low.
Bai Pengming, a macro analyst at China Investment Advisors, told the Daily Economic News that the first quarter CPI was initially estimated at less than 4%. The second quarter's trend will continue the trend of prices in March, and the preliminary estimate will show a slight increase and then fall back. Should focus on pork, refined oil, vegetables and other prices.
“Since prices rebounded in March, we expect monetary policy operations will remain stable. We maintain that the statutory deposit reserve ratio for 2012 will still be judged to be 1-3 times and 0.5 percentage points each time.†Tang Jianwei said.
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