Can this policy adjustment inject new energy into the weak drug market?
Since the second half of last year, the herbal medicine market has continued to slump, medicine prices have fallen sharply, and some businesses have had time to get out of bed and have been stuck in depth. In the near future, the drug market has been bleak. The old scene of the red-hot trade ceased to exist. Most businesses still have a hard time and choose to hold their currencies.
According to the Chinese Medicinal Materials World Network Information Center, the latest issue of the Chinese herbal medicine comprehensive 200 index closed at 2277.52 points, down 0.198% from the previous week. In each category, the Nourishing 40 Index rose by 0.255%, becoming the only rising index in the current period. The 100 Index of the family was barely flat, while the rest of the Index fell across the board. Its Central Cerebrovascular 20 Index led the decline, falling by 1.019%.
At this stage, the downturn in the drug market has not yet been reversed, and taking the goods is still the most important issue faced by all markets. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the off-season drug market and market consolidation, market confidence has been frustrated and risk aversion has increased. Businessmen are mostly cautious and wait-and-see.
Recently, with the release of the "2011 Analysis report on the circulation of key varieties of Chinese herbal medicines" by the Ministry of Commerce, the basic information of some key varieties has been transparent, and the corresponding man-made speculation on hot spots of the previous period has become more difficult, and the willingness to lighten up will be increased. Therefore, under the dual pressure of gloomy fundamentals and lack of hot spot effects, it is expected that the weakening trend of the drug market will continue. At the same time, the second half of the year is a new phase of concentrated production of home-grown varieties, and new goods will hit the market. It is expected that the delay in purchases and sales will continue.
The central bank cuts interest rates, the country tends to stabilize economic policies, and the corresponding increase in social liquidity helps boost market confidence. It is good news for the drug market, but this kind of interest is not immediate. After all, the drug market has just returned from heights without going through long It is difficult to make a difference by digesting time. In the long run, with the gradual emergence of interest rate cuts, the market outlook is still worth the wait. The recent hot spot variety analysis of Chuanxiong: The production of new products has already ended. Some merchants regard their prices as low, and they rushed to the place of origin to source goods, driving the market to rise. The market was affected by the rising prices of goods originating from production areas, and the market also saw a slight increase. 90% of the dry goods were sold at prices of 11.6 to 12 yuan, but the sources of goods were not as good as the origins.
Market Comment: Chuanxiong as a large variety of Sichuan produce, although its annual demand is large, but after the first two years of high price stimulation, production has resumed over a large area, and now the trend of supply exceeds demand. The current price of Chuanxi is the low price in recent years. Merchants are profiting from bargain hunters but Chuanxi is still in stock. It is expected to be difficult to achieve within a short period of time. Merchants need to be able to tolerate loneliness.
Taizishen: The increased concern of the market caused by leaf spot disease caused the merchants to rush to the production areas to purchase goods. However, there are not many sources of goods left in the production areas. The price of Taizishen which is not connected with the market is rising, and the transaction price of the Taizhou market is about 230 yuan. The area of ​​each production area of ​​the product has been expanded until the time of new listing of new products, the market will fall in different ranges.
Market Comment: In the weak drug market environment, Taizishen was affected by supply and demand, but it was still mainly due to leaf spot disease. It is now known that leaf spot disease has little impact on the growing heterophylla, and the popularity of the disease in a short period of time is difficult to support its continued upward growth. New crops will be produced from June to July and planting areas will increase in all producing areas.
In the absence of favorable fundamentals, there is still room for a turbulent callback for new listings.
Atractylodes: the recent market is relatively stable, and the supply of goods is moving in general. At present, the Ganzhou EC is priced at 17 to 18 yuan and the decoction piece is 19 to 21 yuan; the poor-quality system has 12 to 15 yuan each. There is still a supply of goods in the market, and the actual consumption is limited. The market is still more concerned about.
The market outlook commented: Atractylodes macrocephala as a commonly used family species, history has experienced four ups and downs in the market changes. Affected by the favorable conditions in the previous two years, the planting area has recovered, and the overall situation has been oversupply. In 2010, the sources of planting expansion will be launched this fall. In addition, the inventory of large market players is not actually digested, and there is still a certain amount of shock to explore the space for new production.
In March and July, after nearly two months of soaring in March, the market operators have been afraid to rashly purchase goods in order to avoid risks. The pharmaceutical companies have also reduced the purchase volume due to cost constraints, and the actual digestion of goods has been poor, and the prices have fallen. The market price of Zhangzhou is 60 yuan at 730 yuan, 80 yuan at 710 yuan, and 120 yuan at 660 yuan. The countless head sells at 640 yuan.
According to the market outlook, there will be a spotlight on the market. The price has fallen, but it is still high before and after the Spring Festival. Recently, there have been repeated voices of price cuts in March and July. There is still about 3 months from the production of the new product. When the new goods are listed, the market is bound to call back, but there is little possibility of a sharp correction in the short term. As far as the current price level is concerned, the risk is still there, and businesses should do what they can.
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