Summary
In spite of the large-scale outbreak of bird flu in South Korea and the expected increase in the number of imported eggs from China, the market was temporarily boosted. However, due to the limited total import and export of eggs, the impact on domestic prices is limited, and current prices remain weak; current main producing areas have fallen to 2.7 yuan/jin or so, according to the response of farmers, has fallen to or even fell below the cost level, continue to have a limited downside; and the medium and long-term supply will gradually tighten, the market exists in the case of support, the main price of eggs will be supported at a low price. Provide a basis for a sharp rebound in futures prices.
South Korean bird flu mainly affects market sentiment
A serious outbreak of bird flu in South Korea has spread and 30.33 million sick birds have been culled for the infection of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The largest number of chickens reached 25.82 million. Faced with the tightening of the supply of eggs, the Korean government began implementing tariff quota management on egg products on January 4th, reducing its tariff rate to 0%, and the deadline for the administration of tariff quotas as of June 30. The South Korean government will allow the import of 98,000 tons of eggs with zero tariffs. However, compared with the egg market with an annual output of about 27 million tons, the increase in exports is expected to be limited, and it is difficult to boost domestic prices. We are also moving from current prices. It is not difficult to find that the current prices have continued to be weaker, and the previous month has caused slowing transportation due to smog. During the New Year's Day, the sales in the sales areas have been slow and the stocks have been under a slight backlog. Coupled with the weak demand before the Spring Festival, the colleges and universities are about to leave for winter holidays, and the market demand Expected to be pessimistic, the current price of the main producing areas has fallen to the level of 2.6-3.0 yuan / kg, compared with 3-3.4 yuan / kg in early December, down about 0.3 yuan / kg level, down more than 10%; Especially in Liaoning, current prices continued to fall. It is clear that South Korea expects that the increase in imports will not have much impact on the overall spot market of domestic eggs. The increase in South Korean imports is expected to have more market sentiment.
Feed costs have support
The current weakness is down, and how much is downside. It is understood that the current price has dropped to some areas below the cost level, according to the wind data eggs on December 30 to calculate the breeding profits at this moment, combined with egg-yolk seedlings, feed, veterinary drug vaccines and artificial hydropower The fee is simply calculated. A laying hen invests about 155 yuan, and the output is only 142 yuan. According to the current period price, the breeding farmer has a slight loss, and the tracking data shows that only one hen breed has a low profit. According to the current data, the production cost per kilogram of eggs is about 3.0-3.1 yuan/kg, and the egg wholesale price in some major production areas is already lower than the cost level. We know that eggs are the conversion products of feed, and the price of eggs is constrained by the cost factor. Continued downside has been limited.
Short-term supply will not change in the supply
Currently, the proportion of laying hens is relatively high. Zhihua data showed that the proportion of laying hens in November 2016 was 72.97%, far exceeding the average level of 66%. Sufficient supply was also the main reason for the recent weak current price, but the medium and long-term combination In terms of the breeding cycle, layer chickens account for more than 30% of laying hens for more than 300 days, and layer chickens account for more than 17% for more than 360 days. Nearly 400 million layer hens will enter the elimination cycle in the next 3-5 months. The persistence of medium-term egg supply also needs to pay attention to the condition of reserve hens. However, the data for laying hens is not optimistic. As of November 2016, the reserve hens have dropped to about 17%, far lower than the average of 23% since 2014 and the average 20% in November of the previous year. The number of new laying hens will decrease in the next 3-5 months. For older laying hens, the older laying hen accounts for 9.93%, which is lower than the average of 10.5% since 2014 and 11.7% in November. It is less likely to be eliminated in scale.
In a nutshell, despite the short-term supply of the spot, there are doubts about the continuity of the supply of laying hens in the medium to long term. Affected by the supply, the current price of medium and long-term eggs will remain strong.
Lido expects advance cash advances to rebound
Although the long-term trend is expected to be strong, recent large and medium-sized institutions have put off the winter vacation and the demand before the Spring Festival has been flat. Under the current situation of weaker prices, the market price is expected to advance overdrafts in the market. In the absence of spot cooperation, the rebound in futures price suggests short-term participation. , The recent or continued strong trend, but the pre-holiday fund changes, it is recommended that attention.
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