Industry status
Market review: In the past week, the A-share pharmaceutical sector index rose 3.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the GEM index rose 1.26%.
Industry News: The National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Reform of Medical Service Price" to clarify the comprehensive reform of medical service prices, and basically rationalize the relationship between medical services and prices by 2020.
comment
Investment suggestion: In the past two weeks, the pharmaceutical sector's gains have significantly outperformed the CSI 300 Index. We are still looking at the multi-sector sector and believe that the follow-up pharmaceutical index continues to outperform the market as a high probability event. At present, the market still has big differences on the index. The cautious investors believe that the current bidding is still not completed, the drugs are still facing great pressure, the industry growth rate is still in the process of slow decline, and the sector valuation is still at a historical high. We believe that the industry's growth rate is not a big downside risk. In the first half of the year, the industry's growth rate even showed a small rebound. At present, the pharmaceutical industry is already a big cake of 1.6 trillion yuan. The stock market is already large enough. The guiding significance of the growth of the subsequent sectors will be weaker and weaker. Investors need more attention to structural investment opportunities. We believe that the core reasons for the sector to obtain excess returns are as follows: 1. The short-term pressure brought by the drug trial reform and drug bidding to the industry has fully reflected that the follow-up industry will not have much negative interest, and the marginal expectation is improving; At present, the review of new drugs is obviously speeding up, the national medical consultation for major illnesses will start, and the system reform will bring industry dividends. This is a good time to invest in innovative drugs. 3. The valuation of the sector is quite different, and some enterprises have entered a low historical valuation. Position, if there is a catalyst, the stock price will have valuation flexibility.
Recent work: Pharmaceutical Distribution Industry Report Series 1 (2016.6.29), Hengrui Medical Review (2016.7.5).
Valuation and recommendations
Portfolio: Changchun High-tech, Huadong Medicine, Huahai Pharmaceutical, Hualan Biological, Hengrui Medicine. Hong Kong stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shijiazhuang Group and Kangzhe Pharmaceutical (not covered).
risk
Medical insurance control fees, drug price cuts, anti-commercial bribery.
Youth Biotech CO,. Ltd. , https://www.youtherb.com