What is the reason behind the ups and downs in the price of pigs? Pig prices may stabilise in the second half of the year

First, why pork prices soared?

"Economy Half Hour" focuses on pork prices. In the first half of this year, the price index remained high. According to statistics from the statistics department, an important factor driving up CPI is the excessive increase in pork prices. In June, the reporter went to Shandong, Jilin and other pig-producing provinces to investigate the causes of the rise in pork prices. At that time, it was considered that pork producers should have a stable period of operation if the pig farmers had made up the bar in time. Now that three months have passed, what is the price of pork? Will those pig farmers pay for high prices?

Liu Shuzhen is an ordinary retired employee who lives in the Dongli district of Taipingqiao, Fengtai District, Beijing. A family of five people lives in a room less than 50 square meters. Although their lives are not rich, their daily expenses are basically maintained. . The dishes at home are usually purchased by Liu Aunt, so she pays attention to the market price every day.

Aunt Liu complained that the increase in pork prices was indeed very large. At the time last year, it was only 6-7 yuan a pound, and now it has risen to 17 8 yuan.

Early on the weekend, Aunt Liu went to a nearby supermarket to buy meat. She was pleased to find that pork sold on the hind legs of only 17-18 yuan at the time was sold for only 15 yuan today. In addition, prices for ribs, meat, and other meat are also favorable. After thinking about it, Liu Alu decided to buy one each. When she was about to check out, she and her daughter discussed each other and took the selected piece of pork out of the shopping basket, taking into account the economic situation at home.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2011, the national consumer price level rose by 6.2% year-on-year. Among them, pork prices rose 45.5%, July data show that pork prices rose 56.7%, so the increase in pork prices in August decreased by nearly 10 percentage points year-on-year.

Liu Shuzhen told reporters that the flesh and fat that would have been thrown away would now be labeled as meat sauce. In addition, Aunt Liu also divided lean meat into eight pieces, and even stipulated the amount of meat that everyone in the family eats every day.

The Beijing Great Ocean Road pork wholesale market is the earliest large-scale pork wholesale market built in Beijing. Although it was late at night, the wholesale pork wholesalers were in a continuous stream. The head chef of the wholesale hall told reporters that there will be several fixed ones every evening. Pork sales agents sell thousands of pork a night, and sales have been stable, but since June of this year, he has obviously felt the pressure.

According to the person in charge, Yan Xueming, pork sales last day were a hundred and thirty-one more than they are now.

Master Zhai told reporters that the cost of raising pigs this year is generally high, and the price of pigs has also been rising. The highest price is between 13 yuan and 1 kg, which has directly led to a straight rise in wholesale prices.

Master Yan Xueming said that the pig is worth 9.6 yuan a kilogram, bought from the farm, transported to the slaughterhouse, and then shipped to the wholesale market, the cost is too high.

Xiao Feiqiu has been operating the pork business for more than five years. Usually, a family of three sell pork at a stall next door. He told reporters that the pork stalls he ran last year could sell 17 pigs every day. This year, he only dared to enter ten at most. Not only that, but the reporter also learned in the interview that as the price of pork continues to climb, the profits of agents have dropped sharply, and they have even lost money.

Pork dealer Pan Ayi said that pork prices have risen so much this year, more than half of last year.

Aunt Pan told reporters that on the same day as an example, the pork price of the Dahongmen pork factory she represented was 24 yuan a kilogram, and if the wholesale market price was lower than 24 yuan, she would have to lose money for the sale if the day's pork was sold. If you do not go out, the loss will be even greater.

The owners of the Beijing Hongshan pork market have been operating the pork business for more than 10 years. Recently, many people have switched to selling pork because they do not make money.

One of the master chef Hu told reporters that in the past, he wanted to find a stall selling meat in the vegetable market. However, basically all the stalls in the market are likely to sell meat.

Master Hu said that now small shops, small restaurants do not use pork, and use chicken to cook, only a pound of chicken 6 or 7 yuan.

Market staff told reporters that in the past, the daily market volume was as low as 1,200, and as many as 1,700. However, as pork prices continued to rise this year, compared with January, the number of pork arrivals in only one day decreased by an average of 454.

Master Yan Xueming said that the number of months 6, 7, and 8 was the least, and the minimum number of days in July was less than 1,000, only 990.

Second, the price of pork has risen. Farmers dare not venture out. The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th showed that in the first half of September, the average price of 29 major foods monitored by 50 cities rose by an average of 1.255%, including pork prices It rose 0.8%, rising for four consecutive months, and there was no expected stable price. The price of pork has remained high. Whether it is the consumer or the pork sales chain, all the links are clamoring. What is the reason why pork prices have been rising all the time?

Lishu County in Jilin Province is a famous pig raising county in China. Li Chengxi, who lives in Sihe Village, Baishan Township, began breeding pigs as early as 1987. In 2004 he again covered the first hundred or more pig houses in the village. However, raising live pigs for more than 20 years, such as this year's good market is met for the first time.

In the past 20 years or so, Li Chengxi made the most of his time in 2007. At that time, the purchase price of live pigs reached 8.7 yuan, which means that each pig can earn four or five hundred yuan. This year, Li Chengxi said that a pig has a thousand or eight hundred yuan.

This year, the live pigs have not only increased their profit by several hundred, but the price has not been loosened since May 1st.

Li Chengxi, a villager of Sihe Village in Baishan Township, said that this time lasts longer. This situation lasted only two or three months in 2007.

So what factors led to this year's hog prices have been operating at high levels?

Wang Lixian, director of the Pig Research Office of the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the reporter that the supply and demand are mainly related to the reduction in the supply of pigs. On the one hand, it is scattered farmers, farmers gradually withdraw, and the situation of scale cultivation has not kept pace with the situation. The speed of withdrawal of free-living households. Another major reason is that the survival rate of the piglets is too low, so the effective supply is relatively reduced.

According to the information from the China Animal Husbandry Association, the price of live pigs has entered a new round of cycles since the end of 2007. One of the distinguishing features of this cycle is the large price fluctuations. In April 2008, the live pig price reached 16.87 yuan/kg, which began to fall sharply. In May 2009, it fell to 9.24 yuan per kilogram. When Li Chengxi's live pigs were slaughtered in April 2010, the price dropped to 9.53 yuan per kilogram again. In this year, Li Chengxi, who had been raising pigs for more than 20 years, encountered Waterloo for the first time.

Li Chengxi, a villager of Sihe Village in Baishan Township, reluctantly stated that if the price was 4.5 yuan a pound, 100 pigs would lose an estimated 20,000 yuan.

Seeing that the market is not good, Li Chengxi reduced the number of pigs in pigs from 100 to 6, 70. He said that the more you raise, the more you will lose.

In recent years, because of the ups and downs of the pork market, Li Chengxi has lost more than one person. In another village, Chen Lijun also had a history of raising pigs for 10 years. It has remained at 5, 60 in the past. However, the sharp fluctuations in live hog prices in 2009 left a shadow in his mind.

Chen Lijun said that in 2009, more and more money was raised, and that time he raised 60 pigs and lost 20,000 yuan.

From the end of last year, the price of live pigs began to rise steadily. After May 1st this year, it rose from RMB 14 per kilogram to RMB 20 at the peak. However, the pigs in Chen Lijun's pigsty have actually been reduced by more than half.

Chen Lijun told reporters that he only raised 7 sows and 12 small pigs this year. The funds are not plentiful, the cost is too heavy, and the market conditions are not well mastered.

The cost of raising pigs by Chen Lijun mainly refers to the cost of feed and piglets. Since the beginning of this year, with the rise in live pig prices, the cost of raising pigs has also risen. Therefore, both costs have reached the highest value in history.

Li Chengxi also said that last year piglets were about 300 yuan a pound. This year, the price of piglets was only 260,270 yuan when the piglets were the cheapest, and now the price of piglets has risen to 500 yuan.

Many farmers in the village are self-producing and self-supporting. Compared with the price of piglets, the pressure on them to feel more pressure is the increase in feed prices. In pig feed, corn accounts for 70% to 80%, so the key factor in determining feed costs is the price of corn.

Li Chengxi told reporters that the highest food price was only 1.15 yuan last year, and it was sent home at 0.95 yuan in August and September. In the first two days, he spent 1.28 yuan to buy grain.

Feeding a 250-pound pig costs about 600 pounds of corn. Every increase in the price of corn means that the cost of breeding is 60 yuan more. In order to understand the current price of corn, the reporter also visited the grain trading market in Lishu County.

Previous 1 2 A villager told reporters that corn is now 1.27 yuan a pound, or 2.15 yuan a pound before two weeks. Food vendors also said that food prices have risen by at least a cent.

Li Huizhi is the head of the agricultural station of Wanfa Town, Lishu County, Jilin Province. He engaged in corn acquisition for more than a decade. He told reporters that the current price of Chen corn is the highest point of local history.

Li Huizhi said that when Chen grain was sent out last year, it was basically no more than 1.23 yuan. This year Chen grain has reached 1.26-1.3 yuan.

Just as domestic corn prices reached the highest point in history, international food prices also face upward pressure.

Reuters commentator Kang Wei said that the floods in the entire eastern region and the central and western regions of the United States have continued and the planting season has been seriously affected. In addition, the maize crop is also affected by the rare high temperature weather in history. Therefore, the crop growing season faces severe challenges. This has promoted the rise of food prices throughout the world. In order to get more detailed information on corn prices, they interviewed risk management analyst and New York-based Burns Futures Brokers Bill Lafitti.

Risk Management analyst and New York-based Burns Futures Broker Bill Rafferty said that this year's situation is very bad. Floods have occurred in the Midwest, and there have been many crop failures. The crops are not growing well. It was very humid at first and then it was dry. In these key areas, pollinated areas and crop-growing areas, extremely arid weather has emerged and will have a great impact on the final yield.

Reuters financial commentator Kang Wei said that the world's major crops such as soybeans, wheat, corn and other storage are relatively tight, analysts believe that this will drive prices further higher. The following is the view of analyst Bill Lafitti:

Based on the overall situation, it is expected that the grain production will gradually decrease within a year or two. The entire storage capacity is very tight. Even if Argentina and Ukraine produce more corn next year, the total demand is still high.

Now is the season when corn is about to be harvested. Then what is the level of new food this year compared with last year? With this question, the reporter visited Songjia Village, Wanfa Town, Lishu County. Wang Jian planted ten acres of corn at home and sold 10 tons of grain at a price of 8 hairs last year. The corn in the field is about to mature and can be sold on the market for more than a month after harvest.

Wang Jian said that corn will be harvested around the 1st of October, and the lowest price of wet grain will exceed 1 yuan. Less than one dollar can't be sold. Now everything is expensive.

Although the overall corn production in Lishu County this year is higher than last year, the costs of seed, fertilizer, and labor are also rising. In addition, the demand for corn is also increasing, so the villagers are generally optimistic about the price of corn this year.

Li Huizhi, the head of the agricultural station of Wanfa Town in Lishu County, Jilin Province, told reporters that the price of corn will increase this year because both farming and industry are fighting for food. It is estimated that before the Spring Festival, it may reach about a dollar.

According to the current price of corn and other feed formulas, the cost for formulating a pound of pig feed is about 1.5 yuan. According to the ratio of 1:3, a 250 kg pound pig needs 750 pounds of feed, the cost is 1125 yuan, and the piglet price is 500 yuan, so the total cost is at least 1,625 yuan, not counting the cost of labor and epidemic prevention, which means that the purchase price of live pigs must be at least 6.5 yuan per catty to protect the cost. The purchase price of 8 yuan can guarantee a profit of more than 300 yuan per pig.

Liu Fenghua, director of the Bureau of Livestock Husbandry in Lishu County, Jilin Province, said that if the profit per pig is less than 300 yuan, then the people may not invest in the pig industry.

Since June this year, the purchase price of live pigs has gradually exceeded 9 yuan per catty, and it is still at a level above 9 yuan. However, compared with previous years, the farmers now appear to be more rational, and the amount of post-padding does not increase significantly.

Wang Lixian, director of the Pig Research Office of the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that the pig industry in 2007 and 2008 was profitable. Many industries were involved in the pig raising industry. Many fields were also making up the fence and the scale of raising pigs was expanding. This phenomenon did not occur in large numbers this time. The current farmers are very sensible. When prices are high, they do not make up the columns as before.

In Xibaishan Village, Baishan Township, Lishu County where Chen Lijun is located, although the live pig market this year is the best year, many people still do not make up the bar. Before 2009, all four households on both sides of the road had raised pigs, but now people have gone for a walk.

In the past two years, farmers’ wages for migrant workers have gradually increased. The current daily income of workers in Jilin Province can reach 100 yuan. If they are woodworking and other arts and crafts, their income will also have to double or quadruple, which has caused many farmers to give up. Raising pigs, doing odd jobs during the slack season.

Wei Jing, a villager of Xibaishan Village in Baishan Township, Lishu County, said that there is no risk in working, but the feed and cost of raising pigs are also high. So everyone is unwilling to raise.

In the past, Chen Lijun mainly made money by raising pigs. Now he has reduced the size of live pigs from the previous 60 to 20, and his family is mainly relying on his carpenters to make money. A casual worker can earn 30,000 yuan a year.

Third, experts believe that the possibility of lower pork prices in the second half is very small. On the one hand, the cost of raising pigs continues to climb. Even with this year's soaring market, many pig farmers have not dared to act rashly to increase the amount of livestock. The price of pork has skyrocketed for many years. The plunge in the market also made some farmers prefer to go out to work rather than risk breeding pigs. Given that the contradiction between supply and demand has not been fundamentally alleviated, will the price of pork be stable in the second half of the year?

The Weijing Village in Xibaishan Village, Baishan Township, Lishu County has been raising pigs since 2002 and it has grown to 100 at the most. From the end of 2007 to the first half of 2008, it caught the peak of the pig price, and each pig earned RMB 890 or more. However, since then the market has been ups and downs, and there has been no support since then.

However, unlike Chen Lijun, after this year's live pigs market improved, Wei Jing returned to the old business and raised more than ninety pigs. In another month, these pigs would have to be sold on the market.

Wei Jing told reporters that the batch of pigs was raised on May 1 because of the high prices of pigs. Feeling right, this year's market is still quite steady.

Many farmers have also begun to expand the scale of farming. Wang Shuqin’s family used to feed more than a dozen pigs. They saw a good market this year. The family also raised 10,000 yuan to expand the scale of pigs to 50. Now that the new pigsty has been repaired, it is time to start restocking.

The pigpen in Li Chengxi’s home was half empty last year and is now full circle. There are currently 160 live pigs.

Although the cost of raising pigs this year is relatively high, for these farmers, as long as they have profit margins, they will continue to develop their own pig raising business.

Li Chengxi said that he thinks that pig farming can't always pay for it, nor can it always be earned.

At the same time as retail households are restocking, large-scale aquaculture plants are gradually developing. This year, the central government supports the investment of large-scale standardized farms and community construction to 2.5 billion yuan, and subsidies will be given to farmers (farms) at a standard of 100 yuan for each breeding sow. At present, large-scale farming in Lishu County is also gradually developing. Dong Tiecheng is a large farmer in Laoshantou Village of Baishan Township. In 2008, the family and friends helped invest in the construction of the farm. In April this year, the scale was once again expanded. The current slaughter volume is 600. A new pig house will be built on this open space next year.

Dong Tiecheng, Laoshantou Village, Baishan Township, said that next year, it will be built entirely on four buildings. There are 1,100 slaughterhouses.

According to the information released by the Ministry of Agriculture, the total live pig population in August was 460.57 million, an increase of 1.01% year-on-year, and an increase of 0.9% from the previous month. Among them, 48.15 million were breeding sows, an increase of 5.13% year-on-year and an increase of 0.6% from the previous period.

Wang Lixian, head of the pig breeding research department of the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, will not be too volatile until the end of the year. In the winter, it is the peak of consumption. Although the amount of supply will increase a bit, but the consumption will increase, so the change in price will not be very large.

Wang Lixian believes that hog prices will fall after the Spring Festival, but the possibility of a sharp drop will be very small.

Wang Lixian said that if a commodity pig does not earn 300 yuan, there will be no enthusiasm to raise it, because it has an input cost inside, and even if the price of pigs will decline in the future, it will not return to the previous level. Many farmers now know that there are certain risks when they are restocked at peak times. Therefore, although the increase in rebar is now increasing, it has not increased too much and there will not be a sharp decline in prices in 2009.

Half-hour observation: Fundamental solution to the unregulated status of hog farming Pork prices have risen or fallen. This is not a complicated matter. With large supplies, prices naturally drop. Conversely, prices rise. In the past 15 years, there have been at least five cycles of skyrocketing plunging. In all agricultural products, including aquaculture, we cannot help asking why it is not rice, why is it not such a sudden rise or fall of chicken? What is the reason behind this?

After almost every time the pork price plummets, it will usher in state regulation, such as increasing farmers' subsidies and starting state purchases. However, these measures did not fundamentally solve the disorder of pig breeding. Market risks are always borne by farmers who are least able to resist risks. Even though the pork price has gradually become stable or even dropped this time, we have reason to believe that in the near future, the price of pork will continue to soar again.

It is hoped that the price of pork will remain stable. This is not only a strong demand from consumers, but also an important guarantee for the protection of the pig industry.