Soybeans are still weak in the short term, and when the rising market starts, it depends on

The recent bean market generally focuses on broad shocks. On the one hand, the supply is relatively tight, especially at the historically low level of US soybean stocks. On the other hand, it is China's policy pressure to prevent inflation, especially domestic commercial stocks and the State Reserve. Under the pressure of destocking in China, it is expected that the beans market will still be weak on the short-term, and when the market will start rising prices, depending on the speculation of the weather.

With the improvement of weather in South America in April, South American new beans marketed faster. The Brazilian agriculture consulting agency Celaris said that as of the week of April 16th, due to the dryness of the crop belt, Brazil's 2010/2011 new crop soybean harvest was 85%, up from 77% in the previous week. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also stated that the pace of soybean harvesting in Argentina has accelerated significantly in the past week.

With the listing of new beans in South America, the forecast for South American production has continued to increase as rainfall since February has helped South America get rid of the drought problems brought about by La Nina. The increase in the production of new soybeans in South America and its listing pose a seasonal pressure on the spot market.

The focus of the current market is on demand, precisely because of the lack of demand in China. This is because there is greater pressure on destocking.

High domestic commercial stocks are under pressure. This is particularly evident on pods. According to the survey, the total inventory of soybean meal stocks in coastal oil plants is currently as high as 1.5 million tons to 2 million tons, and downstream feed consumption has yet to start. The basic pressure on the domestic demand for oversupply of soybean meal will continue throughout April.

At present, most feed companies adopt the strategy of “bean pods falling prices into the market to purchase and soybean meal prices delisting and delisting”. Large-scale feed companies only do basic stocks from 15 days to 20 days, while small and medium-sized feed companies basically buy and use them. Of course, the current financial constraints brought about by the continuous domestic regulation and control have also greatly affected the willingness of traders to get goods, which has reduced the demand to some extent. At present, the total amount of imported soybean inventories at domestic coastal ports and oil plants is still over 6 million tons, which also puts pressure on the market.

Unlike the lack of domestic government reserves for corn, China's soybean oil reserves are still relatively abundant. The State Reserve has a total of 2.6 million tons of vegetable oil, total central reserves and temporary storage of soybeans of about 10 million tons, soybean oil of about 1.5 million tons, and other miscellaneous oils. Under the policy guidance of stabilizing prices, it is expected that the sell-off will continue in the latter period, which will bring supply pressure.

Under the pressure of high commercial inventory and continuous outflow of the State Reserve, the domestic market is facing greater pressure to destock, and the direct result is that China’s short-term import demand is weak. As the world's major importer of legume oils and fats, China's sluggish demand has temporarily deterred the market from acting.

However, the future beans are also facing potential gains, that is, weather speculation in the context of the decline in planting area. Assuming that the US soybean demand level remains unchanged in 2010/2011 and the sown area remains at the level of planting intention report in March, under the trend of single crop production, the supply and demand of US soybean remain tight. Only when the yield is significantly higher than the trend yield, the tension between the supply and demand of US beans can be eased. This puts high demands on the weather. This also means that if the weather starts to start, the US beans will easily rise and fall.

At the same time, the decline in the sown area of ​​domestic beans this year is a foregone conclusion. According to surveys, the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has been reduced by nearly 20% this year. This figure is higher than the prediction of 11.2% reduction in soybean area of ​​the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China. If the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang is reduced by 20%, then the soybeans in the Huanghuaihai region will face the competition of cotton and other crops this year. If the weather is normal, it will be normal for the domestic soybeans to reduce production by 2 million tons to 3 million tons. This will support the long-term market.

To sum up, the pressure of China's current inventory destocking makes the beans market short-term rushed and weak, the market is likely to continue to oscillate. From a technical point of view, the short-term technical pressure of the US soybeans is at 1,400 US cents. Correspondingly, the domestic soybean meal 1201 contract in the 3400 yuan line, soybean oil 1201 contract in the 10500 yuan more than a single line should pay attention to take profits.